Most people think predicting the future requires a crystal ball, tarot cards, or that one friend who “just has a feeling.”
Kalshi politely disagrees. Instead of incense and mysticism, it gives you a clean interface, a regulated marketplace, and a chance to back up your predictions with real money.
But how does Kalshi really work and how does Phantom fit in? Keep reading and you’ll be set in no time!
What is Kalshi, actually?
Kalshi is an online platform where you can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. In simple terms, it lets you make predictions on yes-or-no questions about future events—and profit if you’re correct.
Uniquely, Kalshi was the first prediction market that was fully regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This means it operates under strict rules similar to a stock or commodities exchange, giving you a legal and secure way to bet on events without the grey-area legal risks of unregulated prediction sites.
How to read a Kalshi market
When you click on a market on Kalshi, you’ll see a yes/no question and the current prices for the YES and NO contracts (often shown as a percentage or in cents). These prices tell you how the market collectively views the probability of each outcome.
Each contract will settle at $1 or $0 depending on the real-world outcome. If you buy a contract at 60¢ and the “Yes” outcome turns out to be correct, you get $1 back, netting a 40¢ profit (because you paid 60¢ and received $1). If the outcome goes against your position, your contract expires worthless (0), and you lose the amount you paid.
It’s also useful to know that you can trade in and out of positions at any time before a market closes. You’re not locked in until the event resolves. Just like a stock, a Kalshi contract’s price can fluctuate with news and sentiment, and you can sell your position to someone else if you change your mind. This means you can cut losses or lock in gains anytime based on the live market odds, which is a flexibility traditional bets often don’t offer.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Polymarket is another platform where you can wager on event outcomes, but it operates very differently from Kalshi.
To help you understand the key differences between Kalshi and Polymarket, here’s a point-by-point comparison:
- Regulation & legality: Kalshi is a fully CFTC-regulated exchange, which means it’s legally authorized in the U.S. and follows strict compliance rules. When you use Kalshi, you go through Know-Your-Customer (KYC) verification and your funds are held in a regulated setup. Polymarket, on the other hand, only recently got CFTC clearance and is now ramping up its operations in the United States.
- Accessibility: On Kalshi, you typically fund your account with U.S. dollars using familiar methods such as bank transfers or debit cards. But recently, crypto has been added as a deposit option on Kalshi as well. Polymarket, by contrast, heavily leans on USDC for all trades. There’s no account signup in the usual sense—you connect through a crypto wallet such as Phantom. This makes Polymarket more accessible globally and pseudonymous, but it also creates a learning curve if you’re not comfortable with crypto wallets and blockchain transactions. Put simply: Polymarket is non-custodial, leaving full control of funds with you, while Kalshi is custodial and holds your funds directly.
- Markets: Kalshi’s list of markets is mostly focused and tied to U.S. events and economic indicators. It offers questions about things such as elections, government economic reports (inflation rates, job numbers), financial benchmarks, weather events, and other topics that fit within regulatory approvals. These tend to be serious, structured markets with objectively verifiable outcomes. Polymarket’s offerings are often broader and more varied, sometimes reflecting the internet’s zeitgeist.
- User experience: Kalshi is designed to be straightforward for anyone to use, even if you’re not a crypto native. The interface looks and feels like a standard financial trading app—clean design, clear charts, and a simple order ticket for YES or NO trades. It also provides transparency on fees and has features such as interest on idle funds in your account. Trades on Kalshi are matched quickly thanks to professional market makers ensuring liquidity (so you usually see a small “spread” and can execute orders without much delay). Polymarket offers a polished experience as well, but you’ll need some familiarity with crypto and a wallet such as Phantom to use it effectively.
- Trust & safety: Because Kalshi has been regulated for quite some time, it provides strong protections for your funds. U.S. law requires Kalshi to segregate customer funds and maintain systems to prevent fraud or manipulation, so you can trust that the markets aren’t rigged. Additionally, Kalshi’s outcomes and rules are clearly defined upfront, and any disputes are handled under a regulatory framework. Polymarket relies on smart contracts and community “oracles” for resolving markets, and users must trust that the code (and the team behind it) functions correctly.
Kalshi’s future: What’s coming down the pike?
Looking ahead, you can expect more markets, more accessibility, and deeper integration of Kalshi into both the finance and crypto ecosystems.
One likely development is the expansion of market categories. Kalshi is increasingly rolling out more sports and entertainment contracts (for example, outcomes of big sporting events or award shows), essentially bridging the gap between traditional betting and regulated trading.
Another area of growth is technology and accessibility. Kalshi is actively working to integrate with the crypto ecosystem and other financial platforms. To that end, they have started supporting deposits not only in USD but also in popular cryptocurrencies. This means you can fund your account with USDC and SOL directly, which is convenient if you operate in the crypto space.
At the same time, Kalshi is forging partnerships to appear alongside traditional investment offerings. For instance, there are moves to integrate Kalshi’s markets into mainstream brokerage apps used by everyday investors. Imagine seeing a question about an upcoming Fed interest rate decision right in your stock trading app and being able to put money on it. That's the kind of seamless experience Kalshi is aiming for.
Finally, global expansion may be on the horizon. Right now, Kalshi is only available to U.S. residents. Though some users have said they could access Kalshi using a VPN while abroad, this doesn't override the residency requirement. You must have a U.S. SSN to be eligible. However, the team has signaled interest in serving a worldwide user base. So in the future, you might see Kalshi launching in other countries, especially as more governments warm up to the idea of regulated event markets.
Trading events with Kalshi and Phantom
To fund your Kalshi account with crypto, just follow these steps:
- Log into Kalshi and navigate to "Add Funds" → choose the "Crypto" option.
- This will prompt a switch to ZeroHash, Kalshi’s crypto transfer provider.
- Select a supported asset and its network, such as USDC on Solana.
- Next, ZeroHash will present you with a deposit address, copy it.
- Open your Phantom wallet, go to the "Send" tab, select the same asset and network (e.g. USDC on Solana), then paste the address you copied into the recipient field, and send the funds.
- Wait for the transaction to confirm. Deposits typically appear in your Kalshi account within up to 30 minutes.
FAQs
Disclaimer: This guide is strictly for educational purposes only and doesn’t constitute financial or legal advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
